The Labour Thread

[Techno Natch]

No one disputes his ability to get Labour Party members to vote for him, but he fails when it comes to the general population.

Not sure how you can say this with such conviction. It's really hard to say without it going to a general election. I'm not 100% I'd vote for him but im far more likely to vote for him than the alternatives and I expect there are many others like that too.

 

[TheMinsterman]

What bothers me about polls at this point is, quite frankly, with no general election in sight and the inevitable manifestos and arguments, debates in the build up, I couldn't with confidence say who is most appealing to me. I'd likely just say Lib Dems because I only withdrew my vote last time to punish Clegg and co if you put me on the spot. I'd certainly not say Corbyn, purely because Labour are a joke to me and have been since day one of the niggling whining. Come election perhaps he will have the right sort of level of backing and support and my opinion would be different.

 

[.V.]

Not sure how you can say this with such conviction. It's really hard to say without it going to a general election. I'm not 100% I'd vote for him but im far more likely to vote for him than the alternatives and I expect there are many others like that too.

http://labourlist.org/2016/07/millions-of-labour-supporters-would-pick-may-over-corbyn-as-pm/

https://twitter.com/benjiw/status/754410308727341058

 

[.V.]

Déjà vu.

I'll give you the heads up when there's a Bristol rally mate, will be an absolutely huge turnout, them Bristolians love real politics.

If I wanted to meet up with a load of deluded Bristolians I'd go watch the gas.

 

[Abertawe]

That's not proof V. Labour is a shambles today, given the state of it it's no surprise people would opt for the Tories. If that's the same come the verge of 2020 fair enough, but it's a flawed poll given the obvious circumstances.

 

[.V.]

That's not proof V. Labour is a shambles today, given the state of it it's no surprise people would opt for the Tories. If that's the same come the verge of 2020 fair enough, but it's a flawed poll given the obvious circumstances.

It's the closest we have to evidence this far out of an election.

 

[Aber gas]

If I wanted to meet up with a load of deluded Bristolians I'd go watch the gas.

 

[.V.]

View attachment 4026

 

[Abertawe]

Hull movement

 

[Abertawe]

Leeds movement with hundreds being stuck outside unable to get in.

 

[.V.]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...ng-hustings-with-smith-after-rejecting-debate

A good opportunity to showcase himself to the electorate at large turned down *SMH*

 

[Max]

Abertawe, I really hope all those people had a nice day out. I don't think it's a good idea for the leader of the opposition to primarily speak to those who already agree with him, to the detriment of speaking to the country at large.

Interesting piece out today from former Corbyn-backer Owen Jones: https://medium.com/@OwenJones84/que...orters-need-to-answer-b3e82ace7ed3#.shsvx7dhg

Which is very long, but he raises 8 questions which need to be addressed. To summarise:

1. How can the polling be turned around?
2. What's the vision for the party?
3. How are the policies currently significantly different from the last general election?
4. What's the media strategy?
5. What's the plan to win over anyone aged 44+?
6. What's the strategy to win Scotland?
7. What's the strategy to win over Conservative voters?
8. How are we going to deal with people's concerns on immigration?

I don't expect any individual to be able to put together good answers to all of those issues, but it would be nice to hear Corbyn and his supporters talk about, well, any of these issues.

 

[Abertawe]

LOL, like anything Owen Smith would say in a televised debate would actually be the reality of his leadership.

Max, you just don't grasp "it".

 

[.V.]

LOL, like anything Owen Smith would say in a televised debate would actually be the reality of his leadership.

Max, you just don't grasp "it".

If Jeremy believers that then why not do it? He only seems to speak to people he's already won over, forgetting that he is the leader of the opposition, who needs to speak to wider sections of society.

 

[Abertawe]

If Jeremy believers that then why not do it? He only seems to speak to people he's already won over, forgetting that he is the leader of the opposition, who needs to speak to wider sections of society.

There will be a debate when it's right to have one and on Jezza's terms. He shouldn't have to seek election again as the membership have already given him his mandate. He rightly not letting the PLP call the shots in this election, Jezza is still the man and it'd be wise to remember that.

 

[.V.]

There will be a debate when it's right to have one and on Jezza's terms. He shouldn't have to seek election again as the membership have already given him his mandate. He rightly not letting the PLP call the shots in this election, Jezza is still the man and it'd be wise to remember that.

But that's how he's been since September. I agree that he should be on the ballot for the Labour leadership if he wants to be, which he does obviously.

Out of interest, how bad would it have to be for you to change your mind on Corbyn as leader? Say the Tories have a 10 point lead, and Corbyn still has poor personal polling, 18 months from an election, should he go then?

 

[Abertawe]

But that's how he's been since September. I agree that he should be on the ballot for the Labour leadership if he wants to be, which he does obviously.

Out of interest, how bad would it have to be for you to change your mind on Corbyn as leader? Say the Tories have a 10 point lead, and Corbyn still has poor personal polling, 18 months from an election, should he go then?

Unless there was an alternative to the cancerous figures that dictate the PLP there wouldn't be a point. I need to stop discussing this as it's doing my box in, the time to comment again will be on the result and where the party goes from there. The media seem convinced a split of some kind will occur and it's even speculated those leaving will go to court to retain a hold over the Labour name, it'd fail but just goes to show how desperate they are to retain a grip of power.

 

[.V.]

Unless there was an alternative to the cancerous figures that dictate the PLP there wouldn't be a point. I need to stop discussing this as it's doing my box in, the time to comment again will be on the result and where the party goes from there. The media seem convinced a split of some kind will occur and it's even speculated those leaving will go to court to retain a hold over the Labour name, it'd fail but just goes to show how desperate they are to retain a grip of power.

So until 2020, or whenever May decides to call one, then?

 

[Abertawe]

So until 2020, or whenever May decides to call one, then?

How many Labour voters are not gonna vote Labour at a general election because Corbyn is leader? I suspect not many. They will definitely lose votes if he wasn't leader though. Labour aren't in competition with the Tories for votes, analyse the last election. Labour lost because it didn't pick up the LD collapse, they ironically shifted to UKIP. They no longer have their trump card and Farage stepping down is a massive loss for them, UKIP have their work cut out to do that well again. I'm sure most people realise voting LD is pretty much a waste of time too. There's no reason why Corbyn can't pick up that floating vote once there is a unified Labour party.

 

[.V.]

Polling indicates that a number of Labour voters from 2015 like the look of May over Corbyn.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/u...hird-2015-labour-voters-back-theresa-may-over

You won't like it, but Labour need a 9.5% swing for a majority of 2, and that's assuming they don't lose any seats they currently hold.

Their task is even greater now the Tories are picking up votes from UKIP.

 

[Kopper]

Abertawe, I really hope all those people had a nice day out. I don't think it's a good idea for the leader of the opposition to primarily speak to those who already agree with him, to the detriment of speaking to the country at large.

Interesting piece out today from former Corbyn-backer Owen Jones: https://medium.com/@OwenJones84/que...orters-need-to-answer-b3e82ace7ed3#.shsvx7dhg

Which is very long, but he raises 8 questions which need to be addressed. To summarise:

1. How can the polling be turned around?
2. What's the vision for the party?
3. How are the policies currently significantly different from the last general election?
4. What's the media strategy?
5. What's the plan to win over anyone aged 44+?
6. What's the strategy to win Scotland?
7. What's the strategy to win over Conservative voters?
8. How are we going to deal with people's concerns on immigration?

I don't expect any individual to be able to put together good answers to all of those issues, but it would be nice to hear Corbyn and his supporters talk about, well, any of these issues.

I'll answer each in turn.

1. It can't.
2. Spend more on welfare.
3. No significant policy changes.
4. There isn't one. This actually endears him to his core support.
He isn't seen as a media darling.
5. See answer 2.
6. The electorate are too far to the right of Labour to win over.
7. See answer 6.
8. Labour could never out do the Conservatives on this issue. Either change the narrative or leave the topic alone.

Although the point being missed is what are the Conservatives doing right? For starters they've green lit several huge infrastructure projects (HS2, Crossrail and Trident) which have created tens of thousands of jobs.
They gave the country a UK referendum.
They are tackling a lavish welfare system. Child benefits restricted to the first two children. ESA cuts and slowly raising the state pension age. Those joining the work force today will be eligible to a draw a pension at 81 years of age.
All necessary measures. All done by the Conservatives. Until Labour can do these things they'll never be credible.

 

[Max]

LOL, like anything Owen Smith would say in a televised debate would actually be the reality of his leadership.

Max, you just don't grasp "it".

Ah, the mysterious trump card of 'it'.

I didn't mention the televised debates. The piece above isn't by Owen Smith. The piece above is by the journalist Owen Jones.

With that in mind, do you think Labour should be putting together a strategy to, for example, win back seats in Scotland etc?

I'll answer each in turn.

1. It can't.
2. Spend more on welfare.
3. No significant policy changes.
4. There isn't one. This actually endears him to his core support.
He isn't seen as a media darling.
5. See answer 2.
6. The electorate are too far to the right of Labour to win over.
7. See answer 6.
8. Labour could never out do the Conservatives on this issue. Either change the narrative or leave the topic alone.

Although the point being missed is what are the Conservatives doing right? For starters they've green lit several huge infrastructure projects (HS2, Crossrail and Trident) which have created tens of thousands of jobs.
They gave the country a UK referendum.
They are tackling a lavish welfare system. Child benefits restricted to the first two children. ESA cuts and slowly raising the state pension age. Those joining the work force today will be eligible to a draw a pension at 81 years of age.
All necessary measures. All done by the Conservatives. Until Labour can do these things they'll never be credible.

I think what the the Conservatives are doing 'right' - in terms of them being electorally successful, relates a lot to the 8 questions of Labour is not doing well. Eg they have a coherent media strategy, understand how to adapt their message to be competitive in places they're weak eg Scotland, and they understand that the presentation of ideas is important.

The electorate are not too far to the right for Labour to win. As mentioned in that Owen Jones article, loads of Corbyn's stated intentions are the same as Milibands, and the same things when said by Miliband were thought of as not left-wing enough, whereas under Corbyn people seem wary of them as too radical.

And as for 8. Labour have been ignoring people's concerns on immigration for about ... well, 15 years? It is not going well as a strategy.

 

[Kopper]

Ah, the mysterious trump card of 'it'.

I didn't mention the televised debates. The piece above isn't by Owen Smith. The piece above is by the journalist Owen Jones.

With that in mind, do you think Labour should be putting together a strategy to, for example, win back seats in Scotland etc?




I think what the the Conservatives are doing 'right' - in terms of them being electorally successful, relates a lot to the 8 questions of Labour is not doing well. Eg they have a coherent media strategy, understand how to adapt their message to be competitive in places they're weak eg Scotland, and they understand that the presentation of ideas is important.

The electorate are not too far to the right for Labour to win. As mentioned in that Owen Jones article, loads of Corbyn's stated intentions are the same as Milibands, and the same things when said by Miliband were thought of as not left-wing enough, whereas under Corbyn people seem wary of them as too radical.

And as for 8. Labour have been ignoring people's concerns on immigration for about ... well, 15 years? It is not going well as a strategy.

I'm a life long Labour supporter and I'm too far right of the party. That's how far left Labour's front bench are. I strongly disagree with you over where the electorate are. They're on the centre right, if not the right. The last election should've made this crystal clear.
Max, Millband lost the election. Do you really think using the same policies will work under Corbyn or anyone else?

Do you really believe a bit of media spin and a coherent message is all it'll take for Labour to win?
When Nick Clegg betrayed his supporters over tuition fees, he basically told the electorate to beware of any politician offering a free lunch.
Corbyn is offering us a three course meal with our choice of wine, off the menu.
Max, honest answer. What are the Conservatives doing wrong at the time of writing? I realise they'll cock up monumentally at some point, but what is wrong with their current approach?
Specific policies if you do answer this.

 

[Max]

I'm a life long Labour supporter and I'm too far right of the party. That's how far left Labour's front bench are. I strongly disagree with you over where the electorate are. They're on the centre right, if not the right. The last election should've made this crystal clear.
Max, Millband lost the election. Do you really think using the same policies will work under Corbyn or anyone else?

Do you really believe a bit of media spin and a coherent message is all it'll take for Labour to win?
When Nick Clegg betrayed his supporters over tuition fees, he basically told the electorate to beware of any politician offering a free lunch.
Corbyn is offering us a three course meal with our choice of wine, off the menu.
Max, honest answer. What are the Conservatives doing wrong at the time of writing? I realise they'll cock up monumentally at some point, but what is wrong with their current approach?
Specific policies if you do answer this.

I think the electorate have drifted to the right on things like immigration. When it comes to nationalisation, they're to the left of most politicians. The public don't have one coherent set of views and ideas, and so that's why I think it's important how you package ideas and offer them to people. What aim does any one policy serve? The Conservatives repeated 'Clearing up Labour's mess' and 'Long term economic plan' until people echoed them unthinkingly. So I do think having a coherent message is vital.

Miliband lost the election on grounds of 'strong leader' and 'who do you trust on the economy'. His individual policy ideas were not unpopular. But I do agree we need to come up with some new ideas.

I don't want to misinterpret your question. When you say 'What are the Conservatives doing wrong'? I'm assuming you mean things I think are politically and morally wrong. (As a political outfit, they're not doing much wrong - they've put Brexit divisions behind them and the public trust them, because they control their own message). But, since you asked, things the Conservatives have done/are doing wrong, would include:

• The relentless hounding of those on benefits, forcing people to go to the job centre more than is helpful, the bedroom tax, not raising benefits in line with inflation/prices,etc is cynical, uncompassionate and morally bankrupt. It's not even about saving money as none of this really saves any significant amount. It's about creating a political climate where being on benefits is stigmatising, and helps no one.
• Andrew Lansley's reforms on the NHS were a huge mistake, and severed the solid link between the secretary of state and the duty to maintain the health service in its current form. More generally, the NHS is not getting the funding it deserves. They are able to say it's always getting more money, and this is true, but its used to 4% increase year on year, and they're now giving it less. The whole financial system of the NHS is now unsustainable and heading for catastrophe.
• They've never taken the cost of living issue seriously. George Osborne nicked 'the living wage' as an idea, and used it as another excuse to penalise those under 25, who don't get it. See also: the total lack of compassion over food banks.
• Have continued to lie to people about immigration (setting unrealistic targets), and been happy to demonise foreigners or immigrants for political expediency. (Everything from David "bunch of migrants" Cameron to Theresa May's Go Home vans, to the disgraceful bullshit from the whole party directed at Sadiq Khan.)
• More than half the party have shown themselves to be homophobic, and the whole party is populated with people I find totally politically (and sometimes personally) abhorrent, like Stewart Jackson, Nadine Dorries, Boris Johnson, and Priti Patel.
• Nauseous stance on education, firstly with an unimaginative and depressing relentless focus on only English and Maths, coupled with the desire to work kids harder (like in Singapore) despite the most successful evidence-based models in Europe having kids working less hours in more relaxed settings (eg Finland). There is then also the perverse determination to make everything a free school for no really explained reason.
• Pathetic support for the prison service, which is desperately in need of more money and which is more unsafe for staff than ever before.
• Absolutely ignoring the surge in rough sleepers and homeless people.

The Tories are, by nature, cynical and self-interested, and these are just some of the examples I came up with off the top of my head in five minutes.

 

[Abertawe]

Liverpool movement in the rain

 

[Kopper]

I think the electorate have drifted to the right on things like immigration. When it comes to nationalisation, they're to the left of most politicians. The public don't have one coherent set of views and ideas, and so that's why I think it's important how you package ideas and offer them to people. What aim does any one policy serve? The Conservatives repeated 'Clearing up Labour's mess' and 'Long term economic plan' until people echoed them unthinkingly. So I do think having a coherent message is vital.

Miliband lost the election on grounds of 'strong leader' and 'who do you trust on the economy'. His individual policy ideas were not unpopular. But I do agree we need to come up with some new ideas.

I don't want to misinterpret your question. When you say 'What are the Conservatives doing wrong'? I'm assuming you mean things I think are politically and morally wrong. (As a political outfit, they're not doing much wrong - they've put Brexit divisions behind them and the public trust them, because they control their own message). But, since you asked, things the Conservatives have done/are doing wrong, would include:

• The relentless hounding of those on benefits, forcing people to go to the job centre more than is helpful, the bedroom tax, not raising benefits in line with inflation/prices,etc is cynical, uncompassionate and morally bankrupt. It's not even about saving money as none of this really saves any significant amount. It's about creating a political climate where being on benefits is stigmatising, and helps no one.
• Andrew Lansley's reforms on the NHS were a huge mistake, and severed the solid link between the secretary of state and the duty to maintain the health service in its current form. More generally, the NHS is not getting the funding it deserves. They are able to say it's always getting more money, and this is true, but its used to 4% increase year on year, and they're now giving it less. The whole financial system of the NHS is now unsustainable and heading for catastrophe.
• They've never taken the cost of living issue seriously. George Osborne nicked 'the living wage' as an idea, and used it as another excuse to penalise those under 25, who don't get it. See also: the total lack of compassion over food banks.
• Have continued to lie to people about immigration (setting unrealistic targets), and been happy to demonise foreigners or immigrants for political expediency. (Everything from David "bunch of migrants" Cameron to Theresa May's Go Home vans, to the disgraceful bullshit from the whole party directed at Sadiq Khan.)
• More than half the party have shown themselves to be homophobic, and the whole party is populated with people I find totally politically (and sometimes personally) abhorrent, like Stewart Jackson, Nadine Dorries, Boris Johnson, and Priti Patel.
• Nauseous stance on education, firstly with an unimaginative and depressing relentless focus on only English and Maths, coupled with the desire to work kids harder (like in Singapore) despite the most successful evidence-based models in Europe having kids working less hours in more relaxed settings (eg Finland). There is then also the perverse determination to make everything a free school for no really explained reason.
• Pathetic support for the prison service, which is desperately in need of more money and which is more unsafe for staff than ever before.
• Absolutely ignoring the surge in rough sleepers and homeless people.

The Tories are, by nature, cynical and self-interested, and these are just some of the examples I came up with off the top of my head in five minutes.

Max, you mentioned the Conservative drive to demonise those on benefits. But what you fail to note is many on benefits voted for the Tories and UKIP. Surely my sympathies shouldn't lie with them?

The NHS needs funding. The government doesn't want to keep funding it and the people don't want higher NI contributions to pay for it.
What's the solution Max?
A separate fee (say £20) at the point of use? Privatisation?

The Tories will get found out about immigration in whatever deal they reach with the EU.

The Tories are cynical and self interested. But I find that's a fair reflection of society.

 

[Max]

Straight talking, honest bottling politics:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...ng-hustings-with-smith-after-rejecting-debate

 

[Max]

Max, you mentioned the Conservative drive to demonise those on benefits. But what you fail to note is many on benefits voted for the Tories and UKIP. Surely my sympathies shouldn't lie with them?

The NHS needs funding. The government doesn't want to keep funding it and the people don't want higher NI contributions to pay for it.
What's the solution Max?
A separate fee (say £20) at the point of use? Privatisation?

The Tories will get found out about immigration in whatever deal they reach with the EU.

The Tories are cynical and self interested. But I find that's a fair reflection of society.

There is no data on what percentage of people on benefits voted for anyone. And we're currently not distinguishing between in- and out-of-work benefits. Frankly, if some turkeys want to vote for Christmas, that's their business, but I see no reason to demonise anyone in need of support.

And re: NHS, austerity is a political choice. Taking money out of the NHS has been a choice rather than a necessity. But for what it's worth, I would increase the top rate of income tax to pay for the NHS, I would means test pensioner benefits like the winter fuel allowance, I would increase corporation tax if it would help; there are lots of ways to fund the service without privatising it.

Interesting what you say about being a reflection of society. I don't actually agree, but surely it's not the job of politicians to exploit people's basest and least pleasant instincts?

 

[Abertawe]

Movement in marginal Brighton

2nd rally for those unable to get into the planned one

 

[Aber gas]

Poor Owen
https://twitter.com/laboureoin/status/759696624654258176