Football metrics

Jockney

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jan 17, 2015
Messages
2,969
Reaction score
1,552
Points
113
Supports
Fred Onyedinma

JoshBCFC

Site Supporter
Site Supporter
Joined
Apr 19, 2015
Messages
2,259
Reaction score
409
Points
83
Location
Portishead
Supports
Bristol City
That bloke who does quantative and qualitative analysis of chance creation, etc, has released his first set of findings. Interesting, if ultimately meaningless, it suggests that both ourselves and Brentford ought to be much higher up in the table, while Ipswich might start dropping off soon.

https://experimental361.com/2017/09/17/scatter-graphics-championship-17-sep-2017/
Had a look at the scatter graphs of the expected goals from this time last season: they were fairly good at reflecting league position, Rotherham and Wigan being way worse then anyone else, Newcastle and Brighton being quite a bit better then everyone else, Barnsley being up there (which they were until January until there entire team got ripped apart, IIRC), etc, etc.
 

Luke_1884

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jan 21, 2015
Messages
2,155
Reaction score
645
Points
113
Location
Doncaster
Supports
Derby County
Twitter
@Barraclive
Always an interesting read, unfortunately our position towards the "pushovers" bit is pretty bob on at the moment.
 

Madejski

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jan 17, 2015
Messages
1,963
Reaction score
349
Points
83
Location
Leicester
Supports
Reading
This website claimed we were the 23rd best team in the division last season, despite finishing 3rd with 86 points. Therefore, I really couldn't care what it tells me. Stats can be made to look however you want.
 

JoshBCFC

Site Supporter
Site Supporter
Joined
Apr 19, 2015
Messages
2,259
Reaction score
409
Points
83
Location
Portishead
Supports
Bristol City
This website claimed we were the 23rd best team in the division last season, despite finishing 3rd with 86 points. Therefore, I really couldn't care what it tells me. Stats can be made to look however you want.
Stats aren't perfect, some are useful though, especially the expected goals stat.
 

SF_

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jan 21, 2015
Messages
9,557
Reaction score
2,947
Points
113
Supports
Preston North End
Our defence has been fucking heroic.

Clean sheets against Leeds, Boro, Cardiff, Sheffield Wed and Reading is seriously good going.

Seems we've now found our scoring touch too which we were threatening in the opening 6 games.
 

Jockney

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jan 17, 2015
Messages
2,969
Reaction score
1,552
Points
113
Supports
Fred Onyedinma
This website claimed we were the 23rd best team in the division last season, despite finishing 3rd with 86 points. Therefore, I really couldn't care what it tells me. Stats can be made to look however you want.

What's that phrase about the baby and the bathwater...
 

City169

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jan 17, 2015
Messages
1,401
Reaction score
415
Points
83
Supports
Bristol City
This website claimed we were the 23rd best team in the division last season, despite finishing 3rd with 86 points. Therefore, I really couldn't care what it tells me. Stats can be made to look however you want.

It was better at predicting the final positions than the bookies were, and predicted Fulhams upturn in form after their bad start.

IIRC other than Reading and Bristol City it had most teams pretty close to where they ended up.
 

Madejski

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jan 17, 2015
Messages
1,963
Reaction score
349
Points
83
Location
Leicester
Supports
Reading
After a 46 game sample (for 24 teams) I would expect reasonably accurate results. Not the team finishing 3rd to be showing up as 23rd best at chance creation.

I deal with stats quite heavily in my day job, so I know how useful they can be, but also how much they can be twisted. One small inaccuracy can cause big variations.

But for example of how inaccurate this stat can be on occasion. In a game last season we countered against Sheffield Wednesday in injury time when they had their keeper up for a corner. Our player took a shot from 8 yards out, centre of the goal, no defenders or keeper within 30 yards, and this site gave it a 0.3 (out of 1.0) chance of goal conversion.. It was about as guaranteed goal as you will ever get.

I think one day stats like this will be very useful, but there is still a lot of work to be done.
 

JJH

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jan 17, 2015
Messages
14,923
Reaction score
4,596
Points
113
Location
Bristol
Supports
Bristol City
Didn't expect anything less from ours, though we concede an awful lot of shots from range mainly through allowing too much time on the ball.
 

HertsWolf

Site Supporter
Site Supporter
Joined
Jan 19, 2015
Messages
3,557
Reaction score
2,132
Points
113
Location
Hampshire and Ethiopia
Supports
Wolves
Great stuff. Love these useless graphs. I vote we just settle the league this way, come May.
 

Forum statistics

Threads
16,422
Messages
1,189,970
Members
8,392
Latest member
feby2112

Latest posts

Stronger Security, Faster Connections with VPN at IPVanish.com!

SITE SPONSORS

W88 W88 trang chu KUBET Thailand
Fun88 12Bet Get top UK casino bonuses for British players in casinos not on GamStop
The best ₤1 minimum deposit casinos UK not on GamStop Find the best new no deposit casino get bonus and play legendary slots Best UK online casinos list 2022
No-Verification.Casino Casinos that accept PayPal Top online casinos
sure.bet
Need help with your academic papers? Customwritings offers high-quality professionals to write essays that deserve an A!
Top