Stickied Transfer Rumours 2018/19

Steve_Wafc

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Useful article showing the benefits of expected goals and how it can help predict and evaluate performance (pretty spot on about Man Citys weaknesses last summer and Chelsea's regression to the mean, using expected goals as a reliable predictor):

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/footbal...does-show-man-city-should-win-premier-league/

Key summary:
But you don’t need in depth stats to work some of that out. You don’t even need to be a genius. Bravo was an awful goalkeeper, if Ederson is not awful, then City have a better chance of winning the league.. groundbreaking. Everyone could see that City had spent well and they were clear favourites to start the season.
Chelsea lost Costa replaced with someone massively inferior to him, Cahill is a year older, Bakayoko will be adapting and Fabregas is ageing, they didn’t look good to begin with.. don’t need in depth stats to tell you that.
It’s like using stats to review last season’s Arsenal defence at the start and saying they won’t win the league. They won’t win the league because they had a terrible defence, individually they’re not great players and Cech’s reactions are not what they used to be.. again you didn’t need in depth stats to tell you that.
Stats do have some use in the game granted, especially for tactics, but the majority of the time they tell you very little as football is an unpredictable game.
 

Benji

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There's a saying about applying statistics to sport (I think it was Baseball) and I'm going to butcher it.

If your analysis surprises you 80% of the time then it's probably no good, but if it tells you what you expect 80% of the time, then the 20% that surprises you is invaluable.
 

Renegade

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But you don’t need in depth stats to work some of that out. You don’t even need to be a genius. Bravo was an awful goalkeeper, if Ederson is not awful, then City have a better chance of winning the league.. groundbreaking. Everyone could see that City had spent well and they were clear favourites to start the season.
Chelsea lost Costa replaced with someone massively inferior to him, Cahill is a year older, Bakayoko will be adapting and Fabregas is ageing, they didn’t look good to begin with.. don’t need in depth stats to tell you that.
It’s like using stats to review last season’s Arsenal defence at the start and saying they won’t win the league. They won’t win the league because they had a terrible defence, individually they’re not great players and Cech’s reactions are not what they used to be.. again you didn’t need in depth stats to tell you that.
Stats do have some use in the game granted, especially for tactics, but the majority of the time they tell you very little as football is an unpredictable game.
Hindsight is 20/20.

It's not a mutually exclusive arrangement mate, I'm not sure why you are so vociferous against this statistic. You have scouts for the eyeball test, that will always be the main way players are evaluated. Statistics are then used to support team/player evaluation and can often highlight things that might be overlooked. Statistics are also useful when you haven't seen every minute a team/player has played over the course of a large sample size (a month, a season, several seasons...). Resources are limited and scouts will always have biases (and blind spots), this is where statistics like this come in useful.

Eyeball test = good.
Eyeball test + statistics = better.

Football is not so unpredictable that is somehow immune from statistic analysis. Teams pour millions into it to gain an edge. Gamblers make millions from it.
 
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Steve_Wafc

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Hindsight is 20/20.

It's not a mutually exclusive arrangement mate, I'm not sure why you are so vociferous against this statistic. You have scouts for the eyeball test, that will always be the main way players are evaluated. Statistics are then used to support team/player evaluation and can often highlight things that might be overlooked. Statistics are also useful when you haven't seen every minute a team/player has played over the course of a large sample size (a month, a season, several seasons...). Resources are limited and scouts will always have biases (and blind spots), this is where statistics like this come in useful.

Eyeball test = good.
Eyeball test + statistics = better.

Football is not so unpredictable that is somehow immune from statistic analysis. Teams pour millions into it to gain an edge. Gamblers make millions from it.
I’d say I’m more enthusiastic about this, as I’m really just trying to understand why stats are so important. The article makes predictions (apparently solely from stats), but the predictions aren’t that ground breaking. I just think sometimes stats are used when they don’t need to be and they’re made to look really intelligent, when they’re not really. We hired a manager shortly after the season finished and the first thing he did was review full matches of our games to decide who he should keep and who he should let go, not highlights, full games. This is a lot more valuable than a bunch of stats as it’s the visual for them. Like I say, I can see where stats have some benefit but I’d much rather watch someone play either live or on a match video than I would review tables and tables or data.
 

Renegade

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I’d say I’m more enthusiastic about this, as I’m really just trying to understand why stats are so important. The article makes predictions (apparently solely from stats), but the predictions aren’t that ground breaking. I just think sometimes stats are used when they don’t need to be and they’re made to look really intelligent, when they’re not really. We hired a manager shortly after the season finished and the first thing he did was review full matches of our games to decide who he should keep and who he should let go, not highlights, full games. This is a lot more valuable than a bunch of stats as it’s the visual for them. Like I say, I can see where stats have some benefit but I’d much rather watch someone play either live or on a match video than I would review tables and tables or data.
No one said the statistics are meant to be ground breaking in their predictions, more that they can help accurately evaluate a player's performance. In this instance, xG is a much, much better means of evaluating player/team performance than shots saved or goals against which were previously used. If you haven't seen Allison play more than a handful of times, xG is one of many useful metrics that can help you understand if he's any good or not and how he compares with other keepers.

You were the one that derided it as having no point whatsoever. At no point did anyone claim they were reinventing the wheel here. Statistics have been and always will be a useful supplement to the eyeball test. I think Benji said it best:

There's a saying about applying statistics to sport (I think it was Baseball) and I'm going to butcher it.

If your analysis surprises you 80% of the time then it's probably no good, but if it tells you what you expect 80% of the time, then the 20% that surprises you is invaluable.
There is a reason teams spend millions on statistical analysis of performance and that even Match of the Day highlights xG at the end of games. Anyway, I doubt you will be convinced, so we'll leave it at that.
 
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SALTIRE

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Alisson fee and personal terms agreed with Liverpool. £66.8 mill! Coming to England for medical today.
 

big mean bunny

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He needs loaning away from the eyes of Liverpool fans so he can play and not worry about redemption or potentially losing his place.
 
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The need for a quality custodian between the sticks has been a pressing issue that has needed resolving since we lost Reina. Its simply a case of bringing the defense in line with the quality of the midfield and attack ,Karius unfortunately will always have those glaring deficiencies in his game and eventually no matter how much he improves another error strewn performance will sadly only be one game away. Just to add, a keeper will always be prone to the odd gaff but to show such glaring lapses in concentration in a game of that magnitude is frankly unforgivable.
 
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SALTIRE

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The need for a quality custodian between the sticks has been a pressing issue that has needed resolving since we lost Reina. Its simply a case of bringing the defense in line with the quality of the midfield and attack ,Karius unfortunately will always have those glaring deficiencies in his game and eventually no matter how much he improves another error strewn performance will sadly only be one game away. Just to add, a keeper will always be prone to the odd gaff but to show such glaring lapses in concentration in a game of that magnitude is frankly unforgivable.
Yeah agreed. He did well coming back into the side from January, and you can forgive the odd error (and Alisson will make those too, its the nature of being a keeper), but it became clear in the CL Final, with or without concussion, he didn't look up to it, which is a shame.

Bunny is right, he needs to get out of Liverpool and go somewhere else where he can rebuild his confidence and his game. He tried, but ultimately failed.

We haven't had a great keeper in the PL with the exception of Reina for a couple of seasons (and even he had his dodgy moments). I haven't seen anything spectacular from Alisson, but I am hoping he can become the keeper we've been crying out for since Reina left, and that most of our defensive issues will finally be addressed.
 
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Yeah agreed. He did well coming back into the side from January, and you can forgive the odd error (and Alisson will make those too, its the nature of being a keeper), but it became clear in the CL Final, with or without concussion, he didn't look up to it, which is a shame.

Bunny is right, he needs to get out of Liverpool and go somewhere else where he can rebuild his confidence and his game. He tried, but ultimately failed.

We haven't had a great keeper in the PL with the exception of Reina for a couple of seasons (and even he had his dodgy moments). I haven't seen anything spectacular from Alisson, but I am hoping he can become the keeper we've been crying out for since Reina left, and that most of our defensive issues will finally be addressed.
I know Kopites usually back to the hilt any player that plays in that eleven (and I'm talking Kopites before people pipe up and quote the views of the blurts that frequent social media sites ) but its high time we stop glorifying the ordinary and start to laud the extraordinary and thats speaking as a Kopite.
 

Stevencc

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Alisson's reported fee is not far off of double the previous world record for a goalkeeper transfer.

Liverpool, and more specifically Klopp, also hold the current world record for the fee paid for a defender.

They already have the best attack in the league, the midfield has been overhauled and they've at least started to address the big issue of squad depth with shrewd signings like Shaqiri.

Surely Liverpool have to be properly challenging for the title this season?
 

SALTIRE

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Alisson's reported fee is not far off of double the previous world record for a goalkeeper transfer.

Liverpool, and more specifically Klopp, also hold the current world record for the fee paid for a defender.

They already have the best attack in the league, the midfield has been overhauled and they've at least started to address the big issue of squad depth with shrewd signings like Shaqiri.

Surely Liverpool have to be properly challenging for the title this season?
Aye mate I think that's the aim, and we'll be disappointed if we don't put in a title shot this time around.
 

SALTIRE

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We've got some work to do in what is left of the transfer to window to keep up with what you've done and to try and get nearer to City.
Indeed, we've made most of our moves and you guys still have some work to do it seems. As I said to you a while back, I think it will be a three-way tussle for the league with Utd, City and Liverpool; and our signings strengthen that belief for me.
 

Bilo

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Surely Liverpool have to be properly challenging for the title this season?
Well I've never been more hopeful going into a season.

Which isn't saying much. But yes, anything other than a title challenge will be a disappointment.
 

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We'll need to go some to catch City, and we have to hope they have a dip in the league too; but if signing Alisson gets us another 10-12 points like De Gea did for Man Utd last season; we'll be up there.
That's it, isn't it?

They were so good last season that we can improve a lot and still be behind, even if they remain at par - let alone improve themselves.

Here's hoping they have a shitter of a season.
 

Abertawe

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LFC having to spend 67 million because their own fans are too shit to support their own player.
 
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Renegade

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Can't see anything but another dominant campaign from Manchester City, but Liverpool should be clear cut second favourites given their signings in the last six months and their form since VVD. It's genuinely depressing.
 

Stevencc

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Buffon was 51m Euros 17 years ago, which is still absolutely mind blowing.
Yeah, I was looking through the highest transfer fees earlier and there are still a few from years back that stand against the fees paid today. Zidane and Buffon's stood out.
 

AFCB_Mark

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It'll be interesting to see how Klopp handles the transition from underdog of the top 4, to being now expected to seriously challenge and win stuff.
 

Benji

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Remember when Dortmund looked ready to become the best team in Germany and nearly got relegated? That was under Klopp.
 
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Remember when Dortmund looked ready to become the best team in Germany and nearly got relegated? That was under Klopp.
Bloody hell, I remember that. Bottom half-way through weren't they? Lucky to finish seventh, losing only three in the last 14 definitely helped.

Mr. Klopp, sir, wouldn't mind another one of those seasons for your side if you're offering.
 

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